Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Wealth
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I am always interested in investments that perform very well for long periods of time. I periodically look back on stocks that were the best performing over ten year periods to see if there are any common characteristics of stock history that can help me make better investment decisions in the future.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth
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The unemployment rate is the most important indicator for people who are believers in the Phillips Curve. Phillips Curvers believe that there is a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. The less slack in the labor markets (lower unemployment rate) the more inflation there will be as labor can bargain for higher wages and this,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Investing, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Technology stocks, particularly large capitalization ones, have been on a tear as the following chart shows.
Since there is overlap between the two indices, I was curious to know how the largest technology companies have impacted the overall S&P 500 return.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Trends, Wealth
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With last week being dedicated to a much-enjoyed vacation, I thought I would let pictures do more of the talking this week.
Not surprisingly, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by 0.25%. The market fully priced this in. What is more surprising is the Fed telegraphing two more hikes in 2017 and commencing a slow reduction in its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities beginning at the end of the year.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Housing, Interest Rates, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Key economic data and stock prices almost always change before the narrative does. Although the housing meltdown didn’t really come into force until 2007, new home sales had already peaked in 2005 and this corresponded with the stock price of home builders hitting all-time highs. The first chart shows new home sales topping out in July 2015 and the same for Lennar’s stock price as the second chart depicts.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Bob Dylan said, “You gotta serve somebody.” The Federal Reserve is no exception. The Fed has the mandate to use its policy tools granted to it by Congress to help achieve full employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates (most people are not aware of the third mandate).
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Investing, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth
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This is the last in my three-part series excerpting what were the highlights for me from Charlie Munger’s extemporaneous comments and responses to questions at the Daily Journal shareholders’ meeting. Most financial professionals recommend diversifying your investments to avoid being wiped out financially and/or emotionally.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Trends
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From Obama
This post is a blatant application of hindsight bias. We all now know that when Barack Obama won the election and subsequently took office, the economy was melting down and the financial markets were in a free fall around the globe. To refresh your memory, there was the bailout of AIG by the Fed,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Interest Rates, Market Bubbles, News, Stock History, Wealth
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[UPDATED – January 25, 2017] The DOW opened today above 20,000. The rally from 19,000 to 20,000 was one of the fastest in history. What do these numbers mean? We need to look back at the following from 2015 looking at the historical data.
Last week [August 2015] was one wild ride for stock markets around the world.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Market Bubbles, News, Stock History
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I am a great admirer of those who have the ability and inclination to deconstruct great performance as well as negative ones too. Charlie Munger is famous for inverting. If you want to learn how to live a great life it can be just as valuable to educate oneself on the characteristics and quality of a miserable life.
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