One of the key premises that I have with regard to interests rates staying low for a very long time relates to demographics. The United States is projected to grow more slowly in the future and as a result the labor force growth will also slow which will make the productive capacity of the country lower than it otherwise would be absent material gains in productivity.
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In 1985 I was in the United Kingdom for three months and I distinctly remember benefiting from the strengthening dollar against the weakening pound similar to what we are seeing now. The British pound has depreciated in the wake of the Brexit vote to levels not seen since 1985,
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Whenever there are significant events that take place, particularly those with some historical context, I like to take a step back and, if possible, go back in time and find real-time sources to generate a better understanding of what people were thinking at the time. The terrible events in Charlottesville was a catalyst for me to take this approach.
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Let us put men and women together, see which one is smarter,
Some say men, but I say no, women got the men like a puppet show.
It ain’t me it’s the people that say,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth
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The unemployment rate is the most important indicator for people who are believers in the Phillips Curve. Phillips Curvers believe that there is a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. The less slack in the labor markets (lower unemployment rate) the more inflation there will be as labor can bargain for higher wages and this,
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Investing, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Technology stocks, particularly large capitalization ones, have been on a tear as the following chart shows.
Since there is overlap between the two indices, I was curious to know how the largest technology companies have impacted the overall S&P 500 return.
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I was the honored recipient of a dinner that took place for my 30th anniversary at CWS last week. The dinner was organized by my wife with some help from CWS. I usually don’t read a prepared speech when I have something to say in public but in this case,
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As investors (and human beings) it’s almost always best to keep our cool and not let others or ourselves get the best of us. When we lose our center and become consumed by emotion set off by powerful triggers, mistakes happen and we often come to regret our actions and the consequences they unleash.
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Charlie Munger is a big proponent of solving problems and optimizing through inversion. For example, if you want to live a happy, productive, and successful life it is probably more valuable to study those people who you think have been unhappy, unproductive, and unsuccessful.
It is just as important to know what not to do and avoid those actions and decisions as it is to know what to do.
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“A lot of companies have chosen to downsize, and maybe that was the right thing for them. We chose a different path. Our belief was that if we kept putting great products in front of customers, they would continue to open their wallets.”
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