One of the principal reasons I have been in the camp of interest rates remaining low for many years to come relates to demographics. I have always thought that Japan is the canary in the coal mine in terms of being on the leading edge of a rapidly aging society and how this filters through to lower interest rates.
…
Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Market Bubbles, News, Trends
No Comments ↓
Is Mortgage Credit Too Tight – Ask Ben Bernanke
I must admit that I found it quite interesting (and entertaining) to read that Ben Bernanke could not refinance his house in Washington D.C. According to the article,
Bernanke already has refinanced twice. When the former Fed chair and his wife Anna bought their Capitol Hill rowhouse in May 2004,
…
I typically wouldn’t discuss Tax Reform until it has passed since it would usually be speculative, I am making an exception given that many of the parameters are known and because of its potential impact on housing. The basis of the plan was to cut the corporate tax rate first and then work around the constraints that Senate rules and supposed deficit hawks impose on the process.
…
Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Stock History, Wealth
2 Comments ↓
As 2015 opens, like many of you, there are numerous questions I am pondering.
2015 Questions I’m Pondering
Oil
…
Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Wealth
No Comments ↓
I am always interested in investments that perform very well for long periods of time. I periodically look back on stocks that were the best performing over ten year periods to see if there are any common characteristics of stock history that can help me make better investment decisions in the future.
…
Shakespeare said, “[a]ll the world’s a stage.” All of us are actors in the plays of our lives.
The best actors make us believe they are not acting by morphing into whatever role they play with the totality of their humanity. The worst ones are not very believable.
…
A few weeks ago I wrote about a B.I.S. report that hypothesized that global interest rates would rise over the next few decades as global demographics shift from a labor supply shock to a shortage as labor forces shrink in many developed countries.
…
One of the key premises that I have with regard to interests rates staying low for a very long time relates to demographics. The United States is projected to grow more slowly in the future and as a result the labor force growth will also slow which will make the productive capacity of the country lower than it otherwise would be absent material gains in productivity.
…
Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Uncategorized, Wealth
3 Comments ↓
The unemployment rate is the most important indicator for people who are believers in the Phillips Curve. Phillips Curvers believe that there is a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. The less slack in the labor markets (lower unemployment rate) the more inflation there will be as labor can bargain for higher wages and this,
…
Gary Carmell
Posted in Investing, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
No Comments ↓
Technology stocks, particularly large capitalization ones, have been on a tear as the following chart shows.
Since there is overlap between the two indices, I was curious to know how the largest technology companies have impacted the overall S&P 500 return.
…