Blog Archives

The Positives of Being Negative

LIBOR Variable Interest Rates F

Ok, let’s get this out of the way first since this blog has a subliminal purpose of being a diary for major economic and financial milestones so this is one I can’t ignore.

April Unemployment Rate Rose to a Record 14.7 2020

Now to the subject at hand.

…

Read more ›



Where Do We Go from Here?

stay at home

As states start to open up, economic activity will undoubtedly increase. The S&P 500 is up approximately 26% from its March 23rd low, perhaps suggesting the worst is behind us for now. Of course, the question on everyone’s mind is whether there will be a second wave as more people congregate at work,

…

Read more ›



O(y) IL VEY

oil vey

Yet again we have witnessed something unprecedented. As the following two charts show, we have never had negative oil prices until last week. Oil has never been cheaper on an inflation-adjusted basis than it is today.

Cost of a barrel of oil in nominal terms 1870 - 2020

Cost of a barrel of oil in real USD terms 1870 - 2020

Source: Marketwatch

And while under “normal” circumstances this would be great for the consumer,

…

Read more ›



I Have Nothing To Add

Warren Buffett Charlie Munger I have nothing to add

Charlie Munger can be extremely loquacious as he is one who loves to pontificate and definitely has something to say. He also knows when to stay quiet. When he and Warren Buffett hold court at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting and a question is asked of Buffett and after answering it he turns to Charlie and asks him if he has anything to add.

…

Read more ›



Follow the Herd: Why COVID19 End Game Needs Herd Immunity

Herd COVID_19

I’m not one to typically advocate following the herd but in the case of the coronavirus, I am having a hard time seeing an end game that doesn’t have herd immunity as the ultimate goal. And this could take a long time and lead to a lengthier economic contraction (to put it mildly) and even more massive federal intervention through government spending and Federal Reserve support of financial markets.

…

Read more ›



Ghosts of Inverted Yield Curve Past

Yield Curve inverted

And all the roads we have to walk are winding

And all the lights that lead us there are blinding

-Wonderwall by Noel Gallagher (for Oasis)

I saw a double bill of Noel Gallagher (formerly of Oasis) and Smashing Pumpkins last week.

…

Read more ›



Dividends - Do They Really Matter?

Dividends

Most real estate investors deploy their capital in this asset class because of the income it can generate. This is very much the case for those investing with CWS. Since 1991 CWS has sold 79 properties**. Approximately half the return has come from dividends and the other half from appreciation*.

…

Read more ›



What's Your Crucible?

Crucible

A friend of mine and I went to a local bar that we very much enjoy frequenting because it is set up in a way to foster connection and conversation between the patrons. It has a living room type configuration with couches and very comfortable chairs in which there is the opportunity to sit across from people and be close to them in a very informal and fun social setting.

…

Read more ›



Markets Climb Walls of Worry - Is it Time to Worry?

Walls of Worry

[Originally Published October 20, 2014] There is sure a lot going on in the world and the headlines are not pretty causing many to worry. As a lover of great music and particularly poetic, moving, and interesting song lyrics, I like to use songs from time to time to help bring insight,

…

Read more ›



Texas Tea

Texas is at the epicenter of the fracking boom and an increase in domestic oil production as the following chart shows:

Texas Daily Oil Production January 1986 - January 2013

With domestic production up, imports have dropped quite a bit as these charts from FT Alphaville show:

US Oil Production & Net Oil Imports

According to the Carpe Diem Blog:

More than one-third of the state’s increase in oil output over the last three years has come from the Eagle Ford Shale oil field in South-central Texas,

…

Read more ›



Categories

Free Insights