I had the great pleasure of spending five days on the incredibly beautiful island of Mallorca, which is part of Spain but south of the mainland. The main purpose for going there was to take tennis lessons over three days at the Rafa Nadal Academy.
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The Philosophical Investor's Blog
To Russia with Sanctions
by 
Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
I have had somewhat of a morbid fascination trying to ascertain the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and everyday life. Information hasn’t been that easy to come by. The most public evidence that Russia has been holding up comes from still robust revenues from energy exports and the surprising strength of the ruble.
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Half Way There? Investing Legends and Longevity
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Labor Day is always a good time to reflect on people who love what they do. The recent passing of famed investor Julian Robertson at the age of 90 got me thinking about other legendary investors who also lived very long lives, including those still living.
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Powell's Conundrum: Demand and Supply
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
In my 35 years working at CWS and the years before that in college, when I first started taking economics classes, the most common term to find the equilibrium to determine optimal price has been “supply and demand.” I have also come to learn that words matter,
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Labor, Housing, and Fed Policy
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell 
It’s becoming even more clear that in order to stifle inflation, the Fed is going to have to induce a recession.
The following chart shows that it takes a recession to stamp out inflation or bring it down even more,
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Laboring over Labor
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell 
We finally had a CPI report that the market responded favorably to. The prior six releases led to market losses. Last week’s report led to a nice gain.
As an aside, this chart shows how incredibly fast margin debt went up and now down during the bear market that just took place.
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Liquidate Labor
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
“Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted,
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In Search of Goldilocks
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Last week the Fed raised short-term interest rates by 0.75%. This was entirely expected by the market. Given that this was already priced in, it stands to reason that the only source of new information would be what the Fed would communicate in its statement that’s released in conjunction with announcing the interest rate hike along with Chairman Jay Powell’s press conference.
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China Syndrome
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
The evidence seems to be increasingly persuasive that economic growth is slowing materially. This is from the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which has a good track record of identifying turns in the business cycle. Its Weekly Leading Index is clearly showing a negative growth rate.
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The Novak and Nick Economy
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
I greatly enjoyed watching the Wimbledon finals between Novak Djokovic and Nick Kyrgios. Novak has won numerous Wimbledon championships, while Nick has never been in the final of a major despite having enormous talent. Djokovic is incredibly disciplined, committed, consistent, and has amazing mental fortitude and problem-solving skills.
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