The Philosophical Investor's Blog

Happy Birthday Roneet

The Roneet Carmell Memorial Endowment Fund

Last Friday was Roneet’s birthday. She would have been 55. I thought this would be an appropriate time to discuss ways I have tried to honor her.

As I’ve gotten older and have had more resources available in which to invest in other people and organizations,

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Got Gold?

gold

With the Chinese weakening their currency, the pound under pressure due to Brexit, and the Euro depreciating due to poor economic fundamentals and demographic trends, it seems like we’re in a phase of monetary policy in which currencies are factoring in much more significantly when it comes to interest rate policy.

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Stocks Drop and Jobs Contract

Stocks Drop and Jobs Contract

One can see from the following charts from Sentimentrader.com that the last 100 trading days have been one of the worst periods in terms of stock returns in modern history. 

Stock History 12-31-1946 12-31-2001

And while the jury is still out as to whether we will have a recession over the next year,

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Turning a Liability into Asset via the Sale of a 100 Year Old House

Starting in 2012, my late wife and I began to invest in residential real estate beyond our primary residence and CWS investments. In 2013 Roneet decided that she wanted to have a small weekend place in Laguna Beach. I thought it was an idea definitely worth exploring,

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Going into Labor

Labor Jobs Inflation Employment 2-Year Treasury Notes

Last week I wrote about how important the 2-Year Treasury note yield was to ascertain how close the Fed was to stopping its rate hikes and how high the Federal Funds Rate may reach. Based on past cycles and declaring that the 2-Year yield had peaked at 4.73% in November,

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A Need for Speed in 2023

speed reading

With 2022 coming to an end and 2023 now upon us, I thought I would reflect on a great tool that I have been using that leaves me feeling that I am going into 2023 with some momentum. I also had a couple of insights that I applied toward the end of the year that I will target to discuss in next week’s blog. 

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Four Eyes on The Two-Year

Four Eyes on The 2 Year Treasury

Introductory note: I wear contacts and glasses, so that’s why I have four eyes paying close attention to the 2-Year Treasury Note yield.

The Federal Reserve has embarked on six tightening cycles since 1988, with the most recent having commenced in March 2022 and one that is still in process.

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Economic Tug of War

Economic Tug of War

Are jobs a lagging indicator? That is the question as last week was a very ugly one in terms of the Apple announcement and other economic reports suggesting the global economy is slowing. At the same time, the jobs report was quite stellar as the economy produced a seasonally adjusted 312,000 jobs,

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From Housing to Labor and Back Again

From Housing to Labor and Back Again

I think this chart is what keeps Jay Powell up at night. If he were convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that we were still in the same low inflation regime that had been present for decades prior to Covid,

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Riding a False Premise: The Hard Rain Scenario

Never did that before

I saw ten thousand talkers whose tongues were all broken

I saw guns and sharp swords in the hands of young children

And it’s a hard, and it’s a hard,

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