Gary CarmellIn a recent interview on Bloomberg Television, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, was asked what he thought about young investment bankers complaining that they were being overworked.
The headline for an article about the interview captures his opinion quite succinctly.
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Gary Carmell
I started getting into the flow and writing about some epiphanies I had on the tennis court that I was planning on sharing this week. And then the jobs report came out on Friday and I saw the reaction of the bond market to what appeared to be a strong report and I felt like I had to do one more chart-oriented blog.
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Gary Carmell
Yes, I am a fan of the Grateful Dead. There was a period of time when they occupied an important part of my life when I was traveling to see many shows with friends and immersed in the Dead community. While I didn’t care much for some of the personal grooming habits,
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Gary Carmell
Investing has some parallels with driving. It’s important to have a destination that keeps you on course. I think of the destination as financial goals rooted in thoughtful consideration of powerful trends upon which to capitalize such that the wind can be put at your back while also being fully cognizant of what exposures you may have that can lead to a permanent loss of capital based on shorter-term issues arising.
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Gary Carmell
I keep focusing my blog posts on economic data via chart representation because we’re in one of those times that needs to be monitored closely for trend reversals (disinflation to inflation) and a change in the Fed’s reaction function (supporting Main Street vs Wall Street).
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Gary Carmell
Given how hot the housing market is there are understandable concerns as to whether we are in a bubble. Bloomberg Businessweek had a good article addressing some of these concerns that included some interesting charts.
This first one shows how the cumulative appreciation over the last five years has matched that of the bubble years of 2002-7.
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Gary Carmell
I have been turning to charts more regularly for my weekly blog posts than I have in the past. Like most people, I see many of the challenges and price pressures resulting from the massively disrupted global supply chain. It shows up in terribly unreliable contractors (I’m having a pool built so I am experiencing this first hand) and the significant increase in the cost of materials that are leading to the rationing of some goods like plywood and even chlorine.
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Gary Carmell
Last week I discussed the possibility that housing could be the canary in the coal mine with regard to an important area of the economy starting to be impacted by higher prices. I wanted to go more in-depth with many more housing-related charts and then end with one non-housing chart that I think trumps everything else in terms of why I think the Fed will remain on hold in terms of raising rates.
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Gary Carmell
It is hard to be a patient long-term investor when the long-term is comprised of a series of often volatile short-terms. This requires great emotional and intestinal fortitude to hang in there when one sees his or her net worth dropping quite rapidly. It is very difficult when markets are volatile and dropping seemingly endlessly to know if those long-hoped-for positive signals may be the light at the end of the tunnel or the train coming at you.
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Gary Carmell
The multi-trillion dollar question is whether inflation is transitory. The Fed and other central bankers believe it is as this chart depicts.
As I’ve written about before, the Fed’s reaction function has switched from a forecasting-based approach to one that is now outcomes-focused in terms of needing to see tangible improvements occurring on Main Street even if it leads to speculation and large rewards on Wall Street.
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