Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, Market Bubbles, News, Uncategorized, Wealth
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The old adage is that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. As Ben Graham said, it’s not the bad ideas that do you in, but the good ideas that go too far that can do the most damage. A perfect example of this was the drive for more Americans to own homes,
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The discovery of the quantum is one of the great breakthroughs in science. It helped transition our understanding of how natural phenomena work from Newtonian mechanics to quantum physics. In this whacky world of infinitesimally small particles, Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle was formulated which postulated that a scientist cannot simultaneously know the position and momentum of a particle because trying to measure either one will affect the results of the other.
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[Updated – May 4, 2016] As real estate investors, we’re obviously big consumers of capital, particularly debt financing. Given this, it’s important to have a view (hopefully a correct one) regarding interest rates. I look at many indicators to help me gauge where I think rates may be headed.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Apartments, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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Rather than diving into deep philosophical exposition and heavy economics, I thought I would go a different direction this week and share some random thoughts and items that have caught my attention recently.
My 14 Random Thoughts
Garry Shandling –
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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The CFA Institute recently polled its members regarding whether the United States will enter into a recession in 2016. 875 members responded and the following table shows the results.
Will the US Experience a Recession in 2016?
Source: CFA Institute Financial NewsBrief
70% are in the camp that a recession will not take place in 2016.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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I promise this is the last time in 2015 that I will discuss interest rates and my strong belief that the Fed is making a big mistake by raising rates, which is expected to happen this week. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, then multiple pictures should be worth many thousands of words.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Interest Rates, Investing, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized
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There is obviously a lot of conjecture as to what the impact of the Fed embarking upon its first increase in short-term interest rates in over nine years will be. Markets are discounting mechanisms so what most people are talking about today the market often has moved on from awhile back.
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Paul Simon wrote that “a man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest.”
How true is that?!
In behavioral economics parlance, this is known as confirmation bias whereby we look for confirming evidence while ignoring or not looking for that which might disconfirm what we believe.
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There Appears to be a Whiff of Deflation in the air if Treasury Yields are any Indication.
The data just may surprise you and solidify why I say that there is a whiff of deflation. Let’s start with a graph of the 10-year Treasury yield over the past year:
This is showing the classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows,
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