Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Interest Rates, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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The CFA Institute recently polled its members regarding whether the United States will enter into a recession in 2016. 875 members responded and the following table shows the results.
Will the US Experience a Recession in 2016?
Source: CFA Institute Financial NewsBrief
70% are in the camp that a recession will not take place in 2016.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, News, Stock History, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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I promise this is the last time in 2015 that I will discuss interest rates and my strong belief that the Fed is making a big mistake by raising rates, which is expected to happen this week. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, then multiple pictures should be worth many thousands of words.
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Paul Simon wrote that “a man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest.”
How true is that?!
In behavioral economics parlance, this is known as confirmation bias whereby we look for confirming evidence while ignoring or not looking for that which might disconfirm what we believe.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Economy, Investing, News, Trends, Uncategorized, Wealth
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I thought I would focus this week’s blog on things that have recently caught my attention in the news.
In Case You Missed It – In the News
• Starwood Purchase of $5.3 Billion of EQR Apartment Assets
In the Dire Straits song Industrial Disease,
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“Victory; a matter of staying power.”
– Elbert Hubbard
Famed economist (and very successful investor) John Maynard Keynes said in the long run, we’re all dead. This is obviously irrefutable, independent of reincarnation and afterlives.
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Gary Carmell
Posted in Advice, Apartments, Economy, News, Wealth
The U.S. apartment market continues to perform extremely well. According to a recent report from CBRE, vacancy rates are near 15-year lows as new supply is being easily absorbed as demand exceeds supply nationally. The nation’s 62 largest apartment markets had a second quarter vacancy rate of 4.2%.
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It looks like Greece blinked and is giving its creditors much of what they’re asking for. In my opinion, it’s just going to create more hardship for the Greek people. In my book, I wrote a lot about the risk of austerity in the United States derailing the recovery in 2010 and 2011.
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There Appears to be a Whiff of Deflation in the air if Treasury Yields are any Indication.
The data just may surprise you and solidify why I say that there is a whiff of deflation. Let’s start with a graph of the 10-year Treasury yield over the past year:
This is showing the classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows,
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“Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend and step off before it is discredited.”
-George Soros
As a follow up to last week’s post and similar to the one from two weeks ago,
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