Gary Carmell
I have written before about how investors overestimate the probability of extreme negative outcomes. The author of the study I referenced in that blog post has teamed up with his famed Yale colleague Robert Shiller and another professor and published a new working paper called Crash Beliefs from Investor Surveys.
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Gary CarmellThe following are the remarks I gave at the inaugural lecture that was held at the University of California, Irvine on May 23rd, 2019.
I want to thank you for coming out tonight for this event. It really means a lot to me as this is such a personal cause.
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Gary Carmell
Sometimes the answers are available to us if we just pay attention and think more expansively to connect the dots. I watched the new Bob Dylan documentary about his 1975 tour called Rolling Thunder Revue.
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Gary Carmell
A few very insightful tweets came out of a very unexpected place after the Bank of Japan waded into the waters of negative interest rates. It was from none other than Jose Canseco, the former home run king, wrestler, and iconoclast. This is what he had to say courtesy of Business Insider:
He is pretty much spot on in asserting that negative interest rates have a deflationary impact.
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Gary Carmell 
Last week my daughter and I went to see the Improvised Shakespeare Company in Los Angeles. Wow, what a mind-blowing experience that was. It was extraordinary to see the four actors take an idea thrown out to them by the audience and turn it into a 90 minute Shakespeare play.
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Gary Carmell 
From time to time Ariella and I engage in some very deep conversations which I always find so enjoyable and stimulating. In light of these interesting discussions, she thought we should consider having a podcast and call it Pop Philosophy. Maybe this will launch a new category called popcasts.
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Gary Carmell
It was my great pleasure and honor to attend my daughter’s high school graduation last week. It was such a beautiful and moving ceremony and a tremendous accomplishment for her. She truly gave blood, sweat, and tears to get to this point. The ceremony was steeped in tradition as she graduated from a girls school that was founded in 1889.
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Gary CarmellWith the holidays coming up, I thought I would focus on a more personal blog entry this week, especially as this was a special week for our family. In my upcoming book The Philosophical Investor: Transforming Wisdom into Wealth (March 17, 2015 publication date) I discuss the power of partnership and how one plus one can really add up to more than two.
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Gary Carmell
As the following headline shows, interest rates fell quite sharply on Friday to current cycle lows in the wake of a very weak non-farm employment report.
One can see how inverted the 10-year Treasury note yield has become versus the 3-month T-bill yield in the following chart.
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Gary Carmell
Jeff Chimenti is a highly accomplished keyboard player who has played with Grateful Dead spin-off bands to great acclaim for a number of years. His background is in jazz and he embarrassingly admits that he never heard the Grateful Dead’s music until he joined Grateful Dead member Bob Weir’s solo band Ratdog.
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