The Philosophical Investor's Blog

Lumbering in Pain

Lumber

Although CWS is largely an owner/operator of apartment communities, we have been developing new communities for over 25 years. Approximately 15% of our portfolio consists of properties we have developed. Given the large amount of capital looking to own apartments and the compression in cap rates,

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A Muddled Approach to Guesstimating Libor's Next Peak

LIBOR Guesstimating Libor's Next Peak

Although I’m in the camp that the Fed will stick to its word and not raise short-term interest rates until after 2023 at the earliest, the market is betting differently. Rather than focusing on when the Fed will start raising rates, let’s assume that they will.

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Sayonara Bonds

Japanese Bond Treasuries

The first quarter was incredibly ugly for bond investors, particularly those with exposure to longer-maturity ones. Bond investors were not happy as Treasuries generated the worst quarterly return since 1980.

A Bad Quarter for Bonds - Bloomberg Barclays treasury index fell 4% 1973 - 2020

So who were the big sellers of Treasuries?

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Stuck Ships and Chips

stuck ships in Suez Canal March 2021

[UPDATE] 3:00 PM Egypt – 6 AM PST the Ever Given was refloated and is on the move again. Credit is given to the full moon bringing the spring higher tides, 14 tug boats, and the 27,000 meters of sand removed. The following was written prior to this news.

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Some Like it Hot (Including Homeowners)

Home Ownership Jay Powell economy

I remember reading about how Peter Drucker knew to leave Germany after Hitler came to power. He said it was simple. He read Mein Kampf and took Hitler at his word. Since he was Jewish he had to assume he was a target and he determined that the risk of emigrating was far less than the risk of staying.

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Stimulus: Should I Save or Should I Go (Spend)

Stimulus save or spend

Economic growth is projected to increase quite substantially now that the $1.9 trillion stimulus has been passed. The following chart shows that economists are forecasting the strongest growth since the Reagan years.

US gross domestic product, change from 4th quarter to 4th quarter 1970 - 2020

Not surprisingly, a lot of this projected growth is predicated on the spending of built-up savings from multiple stimulus packages that have passed and been disbursed.

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Lessons from Columbo

Columbo Schitt's Creek

Not surprisingly, one of the ways of occupying my time while recovering from my heart surgery has been to dive into all of the different content options on the streaming services. Despite the myriad of choices, I have found very little to watch and that is really more particular to me in that I have a hard time starting a series and being committed to finishing it.

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How to Identify and Leverage Your Munger Moment

This week I revisit one of my favorite concepts discussed in the book: The Munger Moment. The video discusses what I mean by this. For those of you who either prefer to read about the concept or have the video amplified by the key points, here you go.

What is a Munger Moment

  • ‘Munger Moments’ are those rare opportunities when the odds align strongly in our favor and all we need are the resources and courage to take advantage of them.

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I Won't Back Down - Powell and Yellen versus Wall Street

Jerome Powell Janet Yellen Wall Street

Well, I won’t back down

No, I won’t back down

You can stand me up at the gates of hell

But I won’t back down

No,

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"I'll See You on Tour"

Gary surgery

I first want to extend my thoughts and prayers to the people of Texas who have experienced an incredible shock to their lives with the loss of electricity and water during the polar vortex. I know we have employees and residents affected by this and virtually every property we own in the state has some form of damage.

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