Gary Carmell
Last week I discussed the possibility that housing could be the canary in the coal mine with regard to an important area of the economy starting to be impacted by higher prices. I wanted to go more in-depth with many more housing-related charts and then end with one non-housing chart that I think trumps everything else in terms of why I think the Fed will remain on hold in terms of raising rates.
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Gary Carmell
It is hard to be a patient long-term investor when the long-term is comprised of a series of often volatile short-terms. This requires great emotional and intestinal fortitude to hang in there when one sees his or her net worth dropping quite rapidly. It is very difficult when markets are volatile and dropping seemingly endlessly to know if those long-hoped-for positive signals may be the light at the end of the tunnel or the train coming at you.
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Gary Carmell
The multi-trillion dollar question is whether inflation is transitory. The Fed and other central bankers believe it is as this chart depicts.
As I’ve written about before, the Fed’s reaction function has switched from a forecasting-based approach to one that is now outcomes-focused in terms of needing to see tangible improvements occurring on Main Street even if it leads to speculation and large rewards on Wall Street.
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Gary Carmell
Japan has been my model for why I think interest rates will stay low. Its rapidly aging society has led to a shrinking pool of labor over the last two decades which has led to less consumption and more savings. In addition, public spending has increased significantly to help keep the economy growing in the face of strong demographic headwinds.
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Gary Carmell
The following was one of the headlines on Marketwatch.com on May 5, 2014:
10-year Treasury yield hits lowest of year
U.S. government debt extends last week’s rally
This was after a strong jobs report on May 2,
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Gary Carmell
Anyone who invests is well aware of average returns that are published over the years for various types of indices. These include, but are in no way limited to, the S&P 500, Wilshire 5000, NASDAQ, Emerging Markets, Bonds (short-term and long-term, corporates and government), and various industry sectors (e.g.
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Gary Carmell
I’m a subscriber to SiriusXM radio and I was pleasantly surprised to see that the new U2 channel went live recently. Once I started listening to it I found it hard to turn off. I was first introduced to the band during my sophomore year at UCLA.
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Gary Carmell
One of the great advantages and pleasures of being with a company that was founded in 1969 is the tremendous number of long-term investors we have and the wonderful relationships formed over the years.
The downside is that aging is inevitable and an increasing number are passing away.
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Gary Carmell
Inflation is clearly one of the hottest topics for investors in particular and society more generally as the following chart shows. Core inflation has not moved commensurately with the exploding interest in the topic.
The following charts show why inflation is such a hot topic.
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Gary Carmell
The following is a recap of my tribute to Roneet delivered at Pardes Institute of Jewish Studies, May 2019
May 7, 2019, would have been my 30th anniversary with Roneet. We met towards the tail end of her senior year at UCLA.
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