I was definitely in the camp that once the yield curve inverted, we were headed for a recession within a year or so. The spread between the 10-year Treasury and 2-year Treasury yields went negative (inverted) in early July 2022.
…
The Philosophical Investor's Blog
The Braveheart Fed
by 
Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
I must say that when I read this tweet last week, I felt heard, listened to, and understood. It was cathartic in a way.
I know I’m being a bit melodramatic, but there are so many cross-currents in the economy that it has made forecasting quite challenging.
…
More Ackman: We Aren't in Kansas Anymore
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
I have written continuously over the last year or so about critical yields for the 10 and 2-year Treasuries such that if they were breached, the probability of them going higher would be quite elevated.
Looking at the following 10-year Treasury chart,
…
China Rebalancing: Daunting Math that Will Impact the World
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Given China’s importance to the world economy, I wanted to focus this week’s post on some of the challenges China is facing in the short and long term.
China’s Economy
From an investor perspective, there is very little optimism that China’s economy will experience stronger growth after severely disappointing in the wake of its Covid reopening.
…
Beans, A fly, Zverev, Djokovic, and Russell
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Beans the Cat
Heather and I have ended up with a rescue kitten. I won’t go into the circumstances, but his name is Beans. This is what he looks like.
As you can see, his eyes are very intense.
…
On Second Thought: Lessons from Frozen Blueberries
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
The pictures that follow seem odd at first. It’s not unreasonable to ask why I took pictures of frozen blueberries and felt compelled to share them via my blog.
I had an epiphany recently when adding frozen blueberries to my smoothie.
…
Jackson Hole and a Future Toll?
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Fed Chairman Jay Powell spoke last Friday at the Jackson Hole conference for Central Bankers. He was pretty clear that the Fed would remain vigilant in its fight against inflation.
The economy is doing better than the Fed expected,
…
Break on Through to 2 + 2
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
You know Covid destroyed supply
Stimulus exploded demand
Inflation ran
The Fed cried
(What does the 10-year do?)
Break on through
To the other side
The 10-year Treasury yield broke through to a new cycle high and is now back above where it last peaked in 2008.
…
Zip
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Last week the CPI report was released. One can see that shelter is now by far the biggest component of inflation. Non-Housing Services are growing at a moderate rate while Core Goods prices are declining.
This chart shows how CPI excluding shelter has been moderating quite significantly,
…
The Days Between - The Wisdom of Jerry Garcia
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Jerry Garcia was born on August 1st, 1942 and died on August 9th, 1995. The eight days between his birthday and the day of his death are known as the “Days Between”. It also happens to be the name of a very poignant Grateful Dead song,
…