Regular readers know that I am a big Bob Dylan fan and have cited him many times over the years to convey essential insights I’m trying to convey. Obviously, I’m not the only one to have leaned on Dylan to help me navigate through life.
…
The Philosophical Investor's Blog
Opening the Door to '24
by 
Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
It’s always good to reflect as a year comes to a close and a new one begins. Professionally, 2023 was extremely challenging (and humbling). Our beautiful hedge capping most of our variable rate loans at 1.25% for 30-day LIBOR, when it was still in existence,
…
Peek-A-Boo Powell
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Perhaps Powell’s pivot was highly influenced by having access to the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), well ahead of its official release last Friday. As this headline from the Wall Street Journal shows, the index went into negative territory,
…
Powell Pivot III: Too Little Too Late for Overleveraged Apartment Owners?
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Powell did it for the third time. He proved for the third time that you should listen to him carefully until he does something completely different, and then you should listen to him again. After raising rates aggressively starting in April 2022, after he had said that the Fed wouldn’t raise rates until the end of 2023 at the earliest,
…
It's Getting Real
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
In the wake of last Friday’s jobs report, Treasuries sold off, and yields rose, as this table shows.
Once again, there was a material difference between the ADP report, which came in weaker than expected,
…
Patience Is A Superpower: Charlie Munger and Sudoku
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
The world lost an intellectual and investing giant with the passing of Charlie Munger. He was due to turn 100 on January 1st. He passed away rather quietly and surprisingly for someone with such a large personality and admittedly big mouth.
…
A Hackney Diamond at 80
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
I remember reading the 20th-anniversary edition of Rolling Stone magazine in 1987. There were numerous interviews with some of the greats of rock and roll who had been performing for most, if not all, of those 20 years. The one common theme I picked up was that when they started playing music and getting paid for it,
…
London Calling with a Little Amsterdam Thrown in
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Last week, I made my annual pilgrimage to London to meet with some of our insurance carriers and prospective ones as well. We have approximately 15 different companies providing us with different layers of coverage. We have a primary layer that covers first losses after deductibles and then secondary/excess layers.
…
Neighborhood Bully
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Last week was extremely busy, and this week, I’m in Europe for meetings in London related to our property insurance. Given that time is limited but the subject is important, I thought that the most expedient way to convey my points about the Middle East would be to use the words of someone far more prophetic and insightful than myself.
…
Breaking Bad? (or Good?)
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Last week may have finally been the week when the Fed aligned with markets that the peak in rates may be in for this cycle. The Fed held rates in what was initially categorized as a “hawkish pause.” It was during the Jay Powell press conference that the market started to believe that maybe the Fed was done raising rates.
…