This will be a rather short blog following up on last week’s focus on key levels for the 2 and 10-year Treasury yields.
I’m a bit tired as last night (Thursday), I had a flight connection through D/FW Airport to return home to Orange County.
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The Philosophical Investor's Blog
All Eyes on the Consumer
by 
Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
One of the things I’m constantly reminded of from playing tennis is the power of consistency. If you can play each facet of the game reasonably well, you don’t have any glaring weaknesses, and you have the anticipatory skills and speed to have effective court coverage,
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Lucky 36
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Last week there were two notable events for me. The first was watching the extraordinary Wimbledon Final between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, and the second was my 36th anniversary at CWS. In Judaism, the number 18 is a lucky number because it is connected to life in Jewish numerology.
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M2 and Taking the Air out of the Inflation Balloon
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Milton Friedman famously said that “Persistent inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” I have never been much of a monetarist because I thought there were many other factors influencing inflation, particularly demand factors, technological innovation, demographics, and the presence or absence of animal spirits among investors and capital providers.
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Back in the Saddle - Blogging Style
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
It’s great to be back blogging after a long sabbatical [2014] that had CWS and I focused on an extraordinarily time-consuming, complex, and large portfolio recapitalization. In addition, I have also been spending a lot of time doing open heart surgery on the book I’m working on via a comprehensive reorganization and re-write.
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Taking a Peek at a Possible 2-Year Peak?
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Last week’s ADP payroll report really rocked the bond and stock markets. It was further support for the Fed to remain tighter for longer. This chart shows how strong private employment growth was.
On the other hand,
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Turning up the Heat and Icarizing the Economy
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Last week was my birthday, and I chose to celebrate it by heading to my home in the desert to check out some work that had been done and to play tennis. This picture from my car dashboard shows a couple of pieces of interesting information.
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It Costs A Lot To Win and Even More To Lose
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Last week I discussed how recessions have not occurred until an inverted yield curve reverts to being positively sloped such that long rates are higher than short rates. I wanted to do a bit of a deeper dive to see what it means for employment peaks.
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Fire on the Mountain: Dead Ahead for Jay Powell
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
Fed Chairman Jay Powell understandably garnered a lot of attention after the Fed meetings concluded last week, which resulted in the first pause in rate hikes after 10 consecutive increases. At the same time, to manage expectations, the Fed dot plot forecasts two more interest rate hikes before they’re done for this cycle.
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Preparing for Slams
by Gary Carmell
Gary Carmell
I had the great privilege to attend the French Open at Roland Garros on June 4th. We saw two women’s matches and one men’s match involving Novak Djokovic. This was the first time I saw Djokovic play in person, so I was really happy we had tickets on the day he was playing on center court.
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