The Philosophical Investor's Blog

Where Do We Go from Here?

stay at home

As states start to open up, economic activity will undoubtedly increase. The S&P 500 is up approximately 26% from its March 23rd low, perhaps suggesting the worst is behind us for now. Of course, the question on everyone’s mind is whether there will be a second wave as more people congregate at work,

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O(y) IL VEY

oil vey

Yet again we have witnessed something unprecedented. As the following two charts show, we have never had negative oil prices until last week. Oil has never been cheaper on an inflation-adjusted basis than it is today.

Cost of a barrel of oil in nominal terms 1870 - 2020

Cost of a barrel of oil in real USD terms 1870 - 2020

Source: Marketwatch

And while under “normal” circumstances this would be great for the consumer,

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I Have Nothing To Add

Warren Buffett Charlie Munger I have nothing to add

Charlie Munger can be extremely loquacious as he is one who loves to pontificate and definitely has something to say. He also knows when to stay quiet. When he and Warren Buffett hold court at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting and a question is asked of Buffett and after answering it he turns to Charlie and asks him if he has anything to add.

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Sabbathing in Place

Sabbath in Place

Our extended sheltering in place has naturally led to a lot of time to think and reflect. I’m a big mindset person which reminds me that I have a choice as to how I frame every situation. When I frame situations as challenges and opportunities versus insurmountable problems then I am much more energized and motivated to fight the good battle to come out the other side stronger and wiser.

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Follow the Herd: Why COVID19 End Game Needs Herd Immunity

Herd COVID_19

I’m not one to typically advocate following the herd but in the case of the coronavirus, I am having a hard time seeing an end game that doesn’t have herd immunity as the ultimate goal. And this could take a long time and lead to a lengthier economic contraction (to put it mildly) and even more massive federal intervention through government spending and Federal Reserve support of financial markets.

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Only in America

Wal-Mart obviously generates a lot of strong reactions. There are those who love it because it has brought lower prices to those who need it the most combined with a strong selection. Others believe it represents everything wrong with America. A relentless focus on cost control at the expense of “living wages”,

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Are We Missing the Importance of Risk Layering?

Risk Layering

Risk comes in all forms and fashions and it’s a real talent to identify risk. Howard Marks, Chairman of Oaktree Capital Management and who was kind enough to write a testimonial for my book, is perhaps the foremost expert at identifying different types of risk and assessing it.

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Ghosts of Inverted Yield Curve Past

Yield Curve inverted

And all the roads we have to walk are winding

And all the lights that lead us there are blinding

-Wonderwall by Noel Gallagher (for Oasis)

I saw a double bill of Noel Gallagher (formerly of Oasis) and Smashing Pumpkins last week.

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Dividends - Do They Really Matter?

Dividends

Most real estate investors deploy their capital in this asset class because of the income it can generate. This is very much the case for those investing with CWS. Since 1991 CWS has sold 79 properties**. Approximately half the return has come from dividends and the other half from appreciation*.

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Roneet Kimeldorf Carmell

Roneet Kimeldorf Carmell

We are incredibly grateful for the love, support, prayers, visits, and food sent to us. We know CWS was with us all the way.

There would be no Gary and CWS without Roneet. She was the catalyst for me finding CWS and getting the job and I am convinced I would not have had the success I have had without her pushing me to keep improving, 

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