The Philosophical Investor's Blog

The Negatives of Positive Thinking

Positive ThinkingWhen I used to watch my son’s high school basketball team I was always so impressed at how composed they were. Many times they would initially fall behind and the other teams would get so pumped up after getting off to a strong start, especially against such a good team as ours.

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The Separation Is In The Preparation For CWS

Preparation

It was quite a week of action for CWS, particularly for our risk management, safety, construction, operations, asset management, human resources, marketing, and maintenance teams. We have been having very early calls (at least for me on the west coast) every morning, including over the Labor Day weekend,

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Houston - We Have A Problem!

Harvey-Hurricane-Harvey

With the extraordinary events that took place in Houston, southeast Texas, and Louisiana as a result of Hurricane Harvey I felt that it was much more relevant to discuss this catastrophe versus part two of demographics and interest rates emphasizing Japan.

Houston: Hurricane Harvey

An estimated 27 trillion gallons of water has blanketed southeast Texas and parts of Louisiana.

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Maybe I'm Wrong? Slowing Trend In The Advanced Economies

Economies

One of the key premises that I have with regard to interests rates staying low for a very long time relates to demographics. The United States is projected to grow more slowly in the future and as a result the labor force growth will also slow which will make the productive capacity of the country lower than it otherwise would be absent material gains in productivity.

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1985 - My Year of Living Adventurously

1985 London

In 1985 I was in the United Kingdom for three months and I distinctly remember benefiting from the strengthening dollar against the weakening pound similar to what we are seeing now. The British pound has depreciated in the wake of the Brexit vote to levels not seen since 1985,

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Historical Context Of The Confederate Statue Controversy

Robert E. Lee Statue Controversy

Whenever there are significant events that take place, particularly those with some historical context, I like to take a step back and, if possible, go back in time and find real-time sources to generate a better understanding of what people were thinking at the time. The terrible events in Charlottesville was a catalyst for me to take this approach.

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Financier vs. Feminist - A Generational and Gender Point/Counterpoint on the Google Engineer's Manifesto

Ariella-Gary-Carmell-Google-Engineer

Let us put men and women together, see which one is smarter,

Some say men, but I say no, women got the men like a puppet show.

It ain’t me it’s the people that say,

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The Case Against The Phillips Curve

Phillips Curve

The unemployment rate is the most important indicator for people who are believers in the Phillips Curve. Phillips Curvers believe that there is a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. The less slack in the labor markets (lower unemployment rate) the more inflation there will be as labor can bargain for higher wages and this,

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Has The Performance Of The S&P 500 Always Been So Top Heavy?

S&P 500 Top Heavy

Technology stocks, particularly large capitalization ones, have been on a tear as the following chart shows.

S&P 500 Technology

Since there is overlap between the two indices, I was curious to know how the largest technology companies have impacted the overall S&P 500 return.

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My First 30 Years With CWS

Gary Carmell, Jim Clayton, Steve Sherwood - CWS

I was the honored recipient of a dinner that took place for my 30th anniversary at CWS last week. The dinner was organized by my wife with some help from CWS. I usually don’t read a prepared speech when I have something to say in public but in this case,

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