Gary Carmell
The unemployment rate is the most important indicator for people who are believers in the Phillips Curve. Phillips Curvers believe that there is a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. The less slack in the labor markets (lower unemployment rate) the more inflation there will be as labor can bargain for higher wages and this,
…
Gary Carmell
Technology stocks, particularly large capitalization ones, have been on a tear as the following chart shows.
Since there is overlap between the two indices, I was curious to know how the largest technology companies have impacted the overall S&P 500 return.
…
Gary Carmell
I was the honored recipient of a dinner that took place for my 30th anniversary at CWS last week. The dinner was organized by my wife with some help from CWS. I usually don’t read a prepared speech when I have something to say in public but in this case,
…
Gary Carmell
As investors (and human beings) it’s almost always best to keep our cool and not let others or ourselves get the best of us. When we lose our center and become consumed by emotion set off by powerful triggers, mistakes happen and we often come to regret our actions and the consequences they unleash.
…
Gary Carmell
Charlie Munger is a big proponent of solving problems and optimizing through inversion. For example, if you want to live a happy, productive, and successful life it is probably more valuable to study those people who you think have been unhappy, unproductive, and unsuccessful.
It is just as important to know what not to do and avoid those actions and decisions as it is to know what to do.
…
Gary Carmell
“A lot of companies have chosen to downsize, and maybe that was the right thing for them. We chose a different path. Our belief was that if we kept putting great products in front of customers, they would continue to open their wallets.”
…
Gary Carmell
Ben Carlson wrote an excellent piece about how knowledge is not enough in life. If one desires to effect change then knowledge without action is just an interesting academic exercise. It can actually end up being demoralizing as nothing is more frustrating than knowing what to do but lacking the desire to carry out the action and the discipline to stick with it.
…
Gary Carmell
With last week being dedicated to a much-enjoyed vacation, I thought I would let pictures do more of the talking this week.
Not surprisingly, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by 0.25%. The market fully priced this in. What is more surprising is the Fed telegraphing two more hikes in 2017 and commencing a slow reduction in its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities beginning at the end of the year.
…
Gary Carmell
A few weeks ago I referenced Bob Dylan’s recommendation that we find our calling. I saw this in action last week and had this supplemented by some of the things I read. I had the pleasure to go to Philadelphia to attend the graduation of my niece from the University of Pennsylvania where she was awarded a Ph.D.
…
Gary Carmell
Key economic data and stock prices almost always change before the narrative does. Although the housing meltdown didn’t really come into force until 2007, new home sales had already peaked in 2005 and this corresponded with the stock price of home builders hitting all-time highs. The first chart shows new home sales topping out in July 2015 and the same for Lennar’s stock price as the second chart depicts.
…