Gary CarmellThere Appears to be a Whiff of Deflation in the air if Treasury Yields are any Indication.
The data just may surprise you and solidify why I say that there is a whiff of deflation. Let’s start with a graph of the 10-year Treasury yield over the past year:
This is showing the classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows,
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Gary CarmellWe have been strong advocates of the premise that renter household formations will continue to capture a larger percentage of overall household formations. Clearly the United States economy became irrationally focused and reliant upon homeownership during the bubble days of 2003-7. While we knew that apartments would not stage any type of meaningful recovery while the economy was contracting from 2008 through 2009,
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Gary CarmellI have written previously about a couple of important demographic and social trends that support long-term demand for apartment renting. These include delayed marriages and the corresponding births that are taking place at older ages for women. This week two reports came out showing how these trends continue. For the first time the Census Bureau is now tracking same sex marriages in its national marriage statistics.
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Gary CarmellI just returned from a two week European vacation to the United Kingdom which included a cruise of the British Isles (Scotland, Northern Ireland, Ireland, and England) and a few days in London. The weather was unusually good for this time of the year, the cruise was wonderful, the places were quite interesting and scenic,
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Gary Carmell“Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend and step off before it is discredited.”
-George Soros
As a follow up to last week’s post and similar to the one from two weeks ago,
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Gary CarmellDailyjobsupdate.com has a wealth of real time information that attempts to track the direction of the economy. It pays particular attention to payroll taxes withheld and remitted to the Treasury. The following chart plots the year over year growth rate in this indicator versus the S&P 500. The following chart shows a very tight correlation between the two.
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Gary CarmellPIMCO has come out with a research report suggesting that the housing recovery may take longer to ripple through the economy due to a variety of factors. That is less interesting to me than the authors’ assertion that “New residential construction needs to double from 2012 levels to meet long-run stable demand…”
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Gary CarmellI came across an interesting research paper from the Federal Reserve related to household formations. Here’s the title, author, date, and link:
The Long and the Short of Household Formation
Andrew Pacioreky
April 1, 2013
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2013/201326/201326pap.pdf
The supply of housing is fairly easy to quantify from statistics published related to building permits and housing starts.
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Gary CarmellThis is from October 1, 1929. A pretty sad tale of a bridge game gone awry and an extreme example of how marital pressures and resentments can build up to a boiling point. The wife shot the husband after an argument in which she called him “a bum bridge player.” I can’t do the story justice by excerpting it so I think it’s worth the time and getting out your magnifying glass to read the short piece.
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Gary CarmellThese are two interesting charts that I saw on the Carpe Diem Blog (well worth visiting) regarding the incredible productivity related to U.S. natural gas production. The industry has been able to produce about 6 times the gas per active rig as it did in 2008.
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