Gary Carmell
The CFA Institute recently polled its members regarding whether the United States will enter into a recession in 2016. 875 members responded and the following table shows the results.
Will the US Experience a Recession in 2016?
Source: CFA Institute Financial NewsBrief
70% are in the camp that a recession will not take place in 2016.
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Gary Carmell
I promise this is the last time in 2015 that I will discuss interest rates and my strong belief that the Fed is making a big mistake by raising rates, which is expected to happen this week. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, then multiple pictures should be worth many thousands of words.
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Gary Carmell
The horrific shootings in San Bernardino seemed to confirm the inevitable that fundamentalist Islamic terror would eventually hit the United States in a less spectacular fashion than 9/11. This was carried out by essentially a home-grown individual who seemed to integrate well in the work environment that he left in a wake of carnage.
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Gary Carmell
There is obviously a lot of conjecture as to what the impact of the Fed embarking upon its first increase in short-term interest rates in over nine years will be. Markets are discounting mechanisms so what most people are talking about today the market often has moved on from awhile back.
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Gary Carmell
Paul Simon wrote that “a man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest.”
How true is that?!
In behavioral economics parlance, this is known as confirmation bias whereby we look for confirming evidence while ignoring or not looking for that which might disconfirm what we believe.
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Gary Carmell
I thought I would focus this week’s blog on things that have recently caught my attention in the news.
In Case You Missed It – In the News
• Starwood Purchase of $5.3 Billion of EQR Apartment Assets
In the Dire Straits song Industrial Disease,
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Gary Carmell
“Victory; a matter of staying power.”
– Elbert Hubbard
Famed economist (and very successful investor) John Maynard Keynes said in the long run, we’re all dead. This is obviously irrefutable, independent of reincarnation and afterlives.
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Gary Carmell
The U.S. apartment market continues to perform extremely well. According to a recent report from CBRE, vacancy rates are near 15-year lows as new supply is being easily absorbed as demand exceeds supply nationally. The nation’s 62 largest apartment markets had a second quarter vacancy rate of 4.2%.
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Gary Carmell
It looks like Greece blinked and is giving its creditors much of what they’re asking for. In my opinion, it’s just going to create more hardship for the Greek people. In my book, I wrote a lot about the risk of austerity in the United States derailing the recovery in 2010 and 2011.
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Gary CarmellCyprus has been dominating the news as the latest over-indebted European country needing a bailout. It is reported to have total debt equal to approximately nine times its GDP. Now that is some serious leverage. It wasn’t always this way though. Here’s an interesting piece from 1954 talking about how crazy it is to put such a prosperous island like Cyprus,
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